NFL 2018 Season Picks.   Picking the way the season will go is a fun thing to do.  It however about as useful as the NCAA preseason polls.   Yes I know that the number of wins and losses do not add up correctly.  This is not a scientific example of picking each teams win and loss.  It is how I was feeling at the time.

NFC

North

 

Vikings 12-4 –  The Vikings are coming off an amazing season last year.  They made it to the NFC Championship game losing to the Super Bowl Champion Eagles.

Packers 11-5 – The Packers are poised to have another good season.  After having an 8 season playoff streak broken last year.  The Packers look to have a strong team.  Of course this will all depend on Rodgers not getting hurt.   The only problem with having possibly the best Quarterback ever to play the game is that you come to rely on them for too much.  We saw that last year when Rodgers broke his collar bone.  All we can say is OUCH.

Lions 7-9 – The Lions lately always seem like the team that is almost there. As long as they have Matt Stafford the Lions will put up some numbers.  The problems this year is that they have a new coach.  This always brings about change.  They will not have the ability to compete in the NFC north.  The Lions are going to get better as the season goes on.  This will be a building year for the future.

Bears 6-10 – The Bears are going to have a very good defense.   The reality here is that John Fox was a mistake as a head coach.  He took a bad team and made them much worse.  Picking up Mack will help on defense of course.  It will do nothing to help what will be a middle of the pack offense at best.   How many wins is Mack worth?  One maybe two so the Bears with have 6 wins instead of 4.   It will remain to be seen if that was a good trade.  Two first round picks was a lot to give up.

 

South

 

Saints 11-5  The Saints were within one crazy play of making it to the NFC championship game.  They are coming back this year with a team that is pretty close to the team they had last year.  Drew Breese it getting to the end of his career.  It is a go for it at all cost type of season for the Saints.  They will be in a situation where they should be able to compete again this year.   

Falcons 10-6 The Falcons are a difficult team to judge this year.   After the disappointing loss to the Patriots two years ago in the Super Bowl it was difficult to figure out how they were going to react.   Now after a less then steller last season it is difficult to determine how they will react this year.  With the coaching changes they had there will be some new looks.  Can they get back to the 2016 season form.   Maybe.  Probably not.  They are going to have some difficult games in their division with the Saints and the Panthers.  I think that they will probably make the playoffs but it will be as a wild card and they will not go deep.

Panthers 8-8 – The Panthers are one of those teams that can be great or horrible.  Just depends on who shows up.  Cam will be Cam.   People either love him or hate him.  I think that the Panthers rely on his legs way to much.   He can throw the ball and they should try to get him to do that more.    If he gets hurt they are in trouble.  On defense the Panthers should be pretty strong.  The reason I pick them to go 8-8 is that they will be there about half the time.  I think that the Saints and the Falcons are better.

Buccaneers 4-12 – Can the Buccaneers survive Jameis Winstons suspension?   Then can they survive him when he gets back.  I am pretty sure that the Buccaneers look back at the 2015 draft and are second guessing the choices they made.   It is not that he does not have the talent.   We all know that he does.  The problem is that he just not gotten over his ability to get in trouble.   This is surly something that is dragging the team down.  Many people are saying the Buccaneers will be the worst team in the league this year.   They may be but the Bills will give them a run for that title.

 

East

 

Eagles 12-4 – The Eagle have the talent to repeat but will they?   It is very difficult to repeat as Super Bowl Champions  Just ask the New England Patriots.  Even though they are the last team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions.  They were not able to do it last year.   The Eagles are a strong team.  That is with out even having their first string quarterback.  There is not a time frame for Carson Wentz to return.   It will not be before mid season.  As long as Nick Foles can cary the load for that time frame they will not be in a hurry to bring back Wentz till he is fully healed and ready to play.   The Eagles look like they should be fine even without him to repeat in the East.  

Giants 9-7 – The Giants were a complete disaster last year.  As a team they really should not have been as bad as their record.  They were not going to win the Super Bowl last year anyway so having a really bad record actually helped them.  The Giants were able to get much stronger in the draft and keep most of the parts that they had before.  The key here is did they make a mistake bey not drafting to replace Eli soon.  He is getting toward the end of his career and was never the greatest quarterback.  He has been better than average but his skills have definitely deteriorated a bit over the last few years.  It did not help that he lost OBJ for most of the year last year.  He should have him and Barkely for the whole year.   We will find out if the gamble pays off.

Red Skins 8-8 – The Red Skins are a huge unknown this year.   It is debatable if they upgraded by moving from Cousins to Smith.  They had some pretty similar numbers over the last few years.   Smiths numbers were slightly better.   Maybe the Skins know something that the Vikings don’t and they moved on from Cousins for a good reason.  On the other hand maybe the Chiefs know something that the Skins don’t.   I really don’t see the moves the Skins made in the off season as an update.  I see them as lateral moved.  The difference is that they moved from a known in their system to an unknown.

Cowboys 7-9 – The Cowboys are going to be a mess this year.  Or as my wife says they will be a Hot Mess.  The amazing offensive line they had of the past is gone.   While Elliott will put up some good numbers.  Prescott is going to have a lot of trouble.  He will no longer have the time he used to have in the pocket.  Dak has no more Jason Witten.   He has no more Dez Bryant.   While the skills of the last two had diminished a bit.  They were still extremely reliable veterans that stabilized things for the Cowboys.  The Cowboys defense will have trouble keeping teams under 20 points.  I don’t see their office being able to generate those points.   I think that it is going to be a long season for Cowboys fans.  

 

West

 

Rams 11-5 – The RAMS are all in for this year.  They should  have a few year windows to actually make a push for the Super Bowl.  With the huge signings that they made in this off season.  If they do not make at least a deep run into the playoffs it will be considered a failure.  It will be very interesting to see how all those big personalities come together on Defense.   It could either turn into one of the best defenses ever or it could just be a complete and utter disaster.   Jared Goff is in a situation where he really needs to show that he was worth being the first pick in the draft.  This will be his third season so he has had time to learn and grow.   If he can put together a decent season and with that defense the Rams are set up for a good year.

Seahawks 8-8 – The Seahawks are in a rebuilding year.  The reason that I give them the 8-8 record in the NFL 2018 season is one reason.  Russell Wilson.  Their defense will be a huge question mark.  The legion of boom is gone.  That crushing defensive line is gone.  They will probably get better as the season goes on but it will be a difficult season for them.  Russell Wilson is a special player.  He has the ability to change the outcome of games.  He is one of the few in that category.    

49ers 7-9 – The 49ers are a few players away from being a contender.  With the Rams loaded up it will be difficult for them to compete.  It will be interesting to see if Jimmy Garoppolo can keep his unbeaten record as the 49ers starter.  LOL  right there is zero chance that he will be able to keep that.  The 49ers shelled out a lot of money for him after he had a great end to the 2017 season.  Of course that was after the 49ers were out of everything.  The teams that they were playing really had nothing to play for so they were more like glorified practices.  He looked right at the right time.  I am not saying that he cannot be a better than average quarterback.  I am saying that it will be a difficult road to travel.

Cardinals 6-10 – The Cardinals are in for a long season.  I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald.  He is a sure hall of fame player and it would be nice if he was on a team that was going to compete.  I see no way for this team to even sniff the playoffs this year.  Bradford will get hurt and even if he does not he has been so beat up I dont’ see him having the same kind of ending to his career that other veteran quarterbacks have had in Arizona.  This will be a long difficult season for the Cardinals.  By the end of the season they may be dueling with the Bills for the first pick in next years draft. 

 

AFC

 

North

Steelers 11-5 – The Steelers are going to be a difficult team to figure out.  While I think that Bell is one of the better players in teh NFL he is at a position where many times 2 guys can have the same impacts and possibly cost the team less.  Then you are also not dependent on one person.  If one of them were to get hurt you will have the other.   It will be interesting to see the impact that Bell holding out has on the team.  His impact in attitude and resentment may be bigger than the impact on the field.  They have already shown cracks with players coming out against his hold out.  That is a little strange but it is what it is.  Ben is getting older and had thoughts of retirement then said he feels the best he ever has.  No one knows for sure he would be the only one that could honestly say.   If this team can keep their minds on the games then they will go far.  If not they will crash and burn.

Ravens 9-7 – AS long as John Harbaugh is the coach the Ravens will have a chance.   He is at least  in my opinion one of the better coaches in the NFL.  It seems that he is always able to get the most out of what ever talent he has on the team.  Saying that.  It does not mean that he can make them a contender for the Super Bowl.   You have to love that Joe Flacco was able to turn one ok season that the Ravens won the Super Bowl into a whole career.   Many players long to have that kind of success and luck.  It was the right place at the right time for him.  I think that the Ravens will have an ok season.  Possibly sneak into the playoffs as a wild card.   The biggest problem I see with them is that they always have aging receivers and they have at best an average quarterback in Flacco.

Bengals 7-9 – The Bengals have a better than average defense with better than average receivers on offense.  A slightly above average quarterback.  The biggest problem they have is Marvin Lewis.  It seems like Marvin is a great guy.  The players love him.  He almost always says the right thing.  For the Bengals the price is right.  He is happy there and the Bengals are happy to have him.   He just can’t seem to get this team over the hump.   Their run of making the playoffs was broken last year.   Before that they had made it 5 straight year with exactly zero wins.   Don’t look for them to break into the playoffs this year.

Browns 6-10 – The Browns are well the Browns.  It seems that there is a team ever decade that is just the picture of futility.   This decade it is the Browns.   While the Browns will be a better team this year than last year.  They are still a ways away from contending for the playoffs.

 

South

Jaguars 11-5 – The Jaguars had a fantastic season last year.  They really should have made it to the Super Bowl but got taken down by the Patriots.   Can they repeat with another great season?   I think that they can.  Not sure that they will be able to get to the AFC championship game again but they will win the AFC South and that will give them a chance.  They are some what limited on offense.  Depending on who is injured each week.   If available Fournette is going to put up some numbers and score some touchdowns.   Bortles just has to not turn the ball over.  The Strength of the Jaguars is going to be their defense.  If they can hold teams to 10 – 13 points a game the Jaguars will be in position to win in almost all their games.

Texans 9-7 – The Texans are in an interesting spot.    They have what could be one of the top young quarterbacks in Watson.  Too bad that he got hurt last year.  He had such an amazing start to the season.  He should be better this year and could have the Texans offense rolling.   They have had a pretty good defense over the last few years that kept them in games when they had a mediocre offense at best.   Now that defense is getting older.  Watt has had a lot of trouble staying healthy.  So has Mercilus.   IF they can both stay healthy then the defense should still be better than average.   Clowney had a pretty good year but with Watt hurt offenses were able to plan to stop him.   

Titans 8-8 – The Titans will be one of those teams that start slow and come on strong after they are out of it.  I think that with Mike Vrabel they made a good choice in head coach.   His rise in the coaching ranks has been very swift.   There will be some growing pains.   With Henry and Mariota they have a good start to an offense.   A lot will depend on if Mariota can stay healthy.  This season will be more of a building for the future rather than what they can do this year.

Colts  7-9 – The Colts season will all depends on Andrew Luck.  How well has his shoulder healed.  While he has shown that he can be a top quarterback in the league the rest of the team is not that great.  They key this season is to not get Luck hurt again and just survive the season

 

East

 

Patriots 12-4 – The Patriots.  What else is there to say about them.  With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick all they do is win.  It seems that they can take just about any players and turn them into a team that wins.    Having Gronk does help a lot.  On defense running back and receiver it seems that there is a revolving door.  This can’t last for ever but I see no reason they will have a drop off this year.   If Tom and Bill are smart they will retire the same year.

Jets 9-7 – The Jets have been putting together the base for a team that will be able to compete.   With the addition of Darnold they have a quarterback that may be able to lead them on offense.  I was not completely sold on him in the draft but the potential is truly there.   They have had some significant swings and misses over the last few years.  The problem they have at this point is that they are in the same division as the Patriots.

Dolphins 8-8 – The Dolphins let their best players leave.  Landry is gone and so is Suh.  Not sure that Suh made that much difference for the Dolphins but the loss of Landry will be felt.  

Bills 6-10 – The Bills are poised to be the 2017 Browns or the 2007 Lions.   It is really difficult to go 0 – 16 but it has happened twice now.  The Bills gave up all the good that they had and have not done much to get any better.   I know they made the playoffs last year but it is more like they backed into it.  Yes it still counts but they broke the longest playoff drought of any team in the NFL and that is saying something with the troubles the Browns have had the last few years.

 

 

West

Raiders 11-5 – The Raiders are a strange team for a few years.   The Move to Las Vegas is a done deal just have to wait for the stadium to be build.  Oakland really has no reason to support this team.  They will though.  That is the kind of fans they have.  Strange that they have such loyal fans even though the Raiders have crapped on them over and over.   This prediction was made before the Raiders traded Mack.  Clearly that trade is designed to help the Raiders build for the move to Las Vegas.   I will knock this down to 9 – 7 now but leave the original prediction up.   Gruden should have a huge influence on how this team reacts.  This team may start out slow but then come on strong in the second half of the season.

Chiefs 10-6 – With the Chiefs the Patrick Mahomes era begins.   The Chiefs had a pretty good season with Alex Smith at quarterback.  It ended as every season the Chiefs have had since Super Bowl 4 with disappointment.    The Chiefs have had some pretty good teams over the years.   For some reason they are just not able to get over the hump.  They decided that Alex Smith was not the one to take them there.   Will Patrick Mahomes be able to do it?   Guess we are going to find out.   He has the ability but that does not always translate to wins.   The Chiefs are still poised to have a pretty nice season.  They will make it to the playoffs.   Then we will find out if they made the correct choice.

Chargers  9-7 – The Chargers are a team with out a city.  Well they had one and turned their back on it.  Sometimes owners make choices that they think are great but make them for the wrong reasons.   Los Angeles will never support the Chargers.  They will support the Rams they might have supported the Raiders again.  They will never support the Chargers.

Broncos 7-9 – The Broncos  have been treading water since their last super bowl run with Peyton Manning.   They won that championship on the back of a great defense.   However even with a great defense you have to be able to score at least some points.  The Broncos have not been able to do that.  I see nothing that makes it look like they are going to be able to do it this year.

 

Playoff teams

NFC

Vikings
Saints
Eagles
Rams

Packers
Falcons

AFC

Steelers
Patriots
Jaguars
Raiders

Chiefs
Texans

Super bowl champion

Packers

The NFL 2018 season will be just as interesting as every NFL season is.  It will be interesting to go back at the end of the season and see how our predictions for the NFL 2018 season played out.