College Football Playoff – Now it Means Something

by | Nov 21, 2018 | NCAA

College Football PlayoffThe College Football Playoff rankings really have not meant much till now.  At this point the direction that the committee is going to take can clearly be seen.  The path for the top four teams is clear.  Win and you are in.  Well it is mostly clear.  Depending on how you win.  You may be in.  In Alabamas case it is win or lose a close one and you are in.

The top four this week are:

  1.  Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

The problem with this set up is that it could mean that we get an Alabama Clemson final again.  This is not a great scenerio if you are not an SEC or ACC fan.  This would make the third time in four years that those two teams would play for the championship.  Yes I know if you don’t want that to happen beat them. This is part of the problem that having the four team playoff has created.   We really need to fix this problem and we need to fix it soon.

Alabama win or close loss and  you are in

The path for Alabama is by far the easiest.   The clear path.  Win and Alabama will be in the College Football Playoff for  the fifth straight year.  They have been in the playoff every year that this format has existed.   They will also more than likely make it if they lose to Auburn in a close game this week.  They will also more than likely make it if they lose a close one to Georgia in the SEC championship game.  That is where the different playoff scenarios get interesting.   The committee has shown before that they are willing to put two teams from the same conference in the playoff.  Just look at last year.   If Georga does pull of the win in the SEC Championship game they will think heavily about putting both Georgia and Alabama in the playoff.

Clemson Win and you are in

Clemson really has not competition to get in the playoff.  They will be heavy favorites in their last two games.  They play South Carolina this week and then will play Pittsburgh in the ACC championship game on December 1st.  Something could happen in one of those games and Clemson could lose.  If they lose they are more than likely out.   I don’t see Clemson losing either one of those games and we will see Clemson in the College Football Playoff for the 4th straight year.

Notre Dame Beat USC and you are in

If Notre Dame beats USC they are in the College Football Playoff.  If they lose there is still a chance they could get in but it would require a lot of help.   The problem for Notre Dame is that they are “not” in a conference.  So they have no conference championship game.   At some point Notre Dame will be forced to pick a conference.  Them being outside of one is fine for now but it really creates other issues.  It would be like an independent team playing football.  Not part of the NFL but they want all the perks of playing in the NFL playoffs.  Not really an Apples for Apples comparison but really I would make them pick a conference if they want to be part of the College Football Playoff.

Michigan win big and you are in

Michigan has the least secure spot in the College Football Playoff.  A loss to Ohio State puts Michigan out of the B1G championship and out of the College Football Playoff.   It probably also puts the B1G out.   With how down the B1G looks this year they are not getting much love from the College Football Playoff Committee and really they don’t deserve it.   There would be a chance for Ohio State if a lot of teams ahead in the standings lost.  I really don’t see that happening.  Even if Michigan wins and then beats Northwestern in the B1G championship game they could be out if Alabama loses a close one to Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

Other Teams that Could get in

I do think that with the way things have stayed the same over the last three weeks.  If these four teams win they will stay in the top four.  Even with one or more of them losing I only see two other teams that could be in.  Georgia and Oklahoma are the only other teams that have a chance in most scenarios.   Georgia would have to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game.  If that happens then Georgia and Alabama are probably both in.   For Oklahoma to get in they would need  a few things to happen.  Alabama losing would not be one of those things.  Oklahoma would need Notre Dame to lose and then for Clemson and Michigan to fall apart.  Could that happen?  Yes it could.   I do not see that happening.  So the chances of Oklahoma getting in are slim.